2
Port Road
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 78
Lingfield · Hewanorra Handicap · 7f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Lingfield | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 08/12/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 20/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |