3
Rogue Supremacy
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 82
Lingfield · Hewanorra Handicap · 7f 1y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength81%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Southwell | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |