5
Tattie Bogle
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 74
Lingfield · Hewanorra Handicap · 7f 1y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |