3
Edergole's Gift
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 48
Lingfield · Rodney Bay Classified Stakes · 6f 1y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 29/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 25/05/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |