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4

Henry Tudor

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 46

Lingfield · Rodney Bay Classified Stakes · 6f 1y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account in a Chelmsford classified event in February. Chance on that form but it remains a standout effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 54 par15/126OR 546 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f1y Std 128 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 52 par7/016OR 526 @ Lingfield 29/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 49 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 46 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 46 par26/026OR 466 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 52 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 52 · 5f215y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 52 par29/056OR 526 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 51 · 6f210y GF 131 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 48 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 48 par14/076OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Leicester67th7th0
2026-06-30Brighton68th8th0
2026-05-29Brighton69th9th0
2026-03-11Southwell69th9th0
2026-02-26Chelmsford City61st1st0
2026-01-29Lingfield69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1229/0129/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/20259th33/10%11%+0.11
22/12/20256th28/10%50%+0.50
07/01/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
29/01/20269th40/10%0%0.00
26/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
11/03/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
29/05/20269th25/10%33%+0.33
30/06/20268th50/10%30%+0.30
14/07/20267th11/271%40%-0.31