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9

Music And Song

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 39

Lingfield · Rodney Bay Classified Stakes · 6f 1y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Little form in Ireland so best watched on debut for this yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 12920/02C8C8 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f Std 128C8 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 1291/04C8BHA48 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m2f158y Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 48 parBHA44 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 44 · 1m1f120y Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 44 par1/0644OR 44C8 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 40 · 1m1f163y Yie 130 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 40 parC7 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 40 · 1m2f Goo 122 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 40 par8/07C7OR 40BHA40 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 40 · 1m1f135y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 40 par20/0740OR 40projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA408th6th+2
2026-07-08Fairyhouse?5th6th−1
2026-06-22Ballinrobe?4th6th−2
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA4412th10th+2
2026-05-03SligoBHA486th5th+1
2026-04-01Dundalk?9th11th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/023/058/0720/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/202612th100/10%15%+0.15
06/03/20269th150/10%0%0.00
01/04/20269th400/10%0%0.00
03/05/20266th50/10%38%+0.38
01/06/202612th50/10%15%+0.15
22/06/20264th66/10%50%+0.50
08/07/20265th80/10%50%+0.50
20/07/20268th14/126%13%-0.14