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8

Roman Spring

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 48

Lingfield · Rodney Bay Classified Stakes · 6f 1y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful 3 times in 2025 but has yet to scale the same heights this season. Dropping back to a classified event gives him a better chance at least.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 25/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 5f6y Std 129 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 54 par25/116OR 546 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Salisbury 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 6f GF 156 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 60 par3/056OR 605 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 5f21y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 57 · 6f12y GF 127 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 57 par23/056OR 575 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 55 · 5f60y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 53 par23/065OR 535 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par21/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury64th4th0
2026-07-09Newbury512th11th+1
2026-06-23Newbury53rd2nd+1
2026-06-09Brighton57th6th+1
2026-05-23Windsor610th10th0
2026-05-11Windsor56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1111/0523/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/11/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
02/12/20253rd1/195%71%-0.23
03/05/20263rd18/15%67%+0.61
11/05/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
23/05/202610th33/10%31%+0.31
09/06/20267th11/142%14%-0.28
23/06/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
09/07/202612th16/116%0%-0.16
21/07/20264th13/266%57%-0.09