Crimson Red
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 66
Monmouth Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |