1
Gwen To Win
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 71
Monmouth Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength62%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/02/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 18% | -0.64 |
| 24/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |