5
Mya Papaya
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 75
Monmouth Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 33% | -0.65 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |