4
Elsie's Smile
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 71
Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |