11

Board Of Directors

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74

Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS17/04C6C5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 90 par4/03C5OR 90C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m110y Gd 126 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 84 par23/05C8OR 84C8 @ Monmouth Park 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 85 par26/06C8OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?10th10th0
2026-03-04Tampa Bay Downs?7th4th+3
2024-04-17Tampa Bay Downs?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/044/0323/0526/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength35%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20241st7/282%100%+0.18
04/03/20267th11/271%33%-0.38
23/05/202610th11/271%10%-0.61
26/06/20262nd13/891%75%-0.16