Elko County
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 21/03/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 27/07/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/08/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |