6
Kauai Breeze
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2024 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |