3
Khetam
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 85
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 10/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |