Lecanto
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 61
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Meadowlands | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |