9
Redemption Speight
6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 82
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Meadowlands | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 22% | -0.38 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |