1
Roscommon
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 81
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |