T V Man
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Meadowlands | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |