8
Two Dollar Bill
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 53
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |