5
Cruise The Nile
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 109
Monmouth Park · Race 6 - Oceanport Stakes · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |