9
Sergeant Capps
4yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 90
Monmouth Park · Race 6 - Oceanport Stakes · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/02/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |