4
Versus
4yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 109
Monmouth Park · Race 6 - Oceanport Stakes · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |