5
Final Joke
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 67
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |