9
Fratellone
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 75
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/9
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |