3
Housebuster Dude
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 69
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-06-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 25/07/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |