Noble Heritage

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 91

Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-19	Belmont At The Big A	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-25	Monmouth Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-05-10	Monmouth Park	?	3rd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-04-18	Gulfstream	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-03-08	Gulfstream	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-01-09	Tampa Bay Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 9

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/01/2026	4th	11/2	71%	40%	-0.31
08/03/2026	8th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.03
18/04/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	80%	+0.80
10/05/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
25/05/2026	2nd	6/5	94%	67%	-0.27
19/06/2026	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07