Brave Bear
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90
Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |