Confabulation
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |