11
Denying
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88
Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |