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4

Magical Marriage

9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93

Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/02/2025 · OR 108 par15/02C6OR 108C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 12/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 107 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark12/03/2025 · OR 107 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 106 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2025 · OR 106 par11/04C6OR 106C8 @ Monmouth Park 18/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 1m110y Fm 121 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 103 parC7 @ Monmouth Park 15/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2025 · OR 100 par15/06C7OR 100C7 @ Monmouth Park 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 103 par14/09C6OR 103C8 @ Monmouth Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 99 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 99 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 97 par25/07C8OR 97projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Monmouth Park?4th4th0
2026-06-28Monmouth Park?4th4th0
2025-09-14Monmouth Park?3rd1st+2
2025-08-02Monmouth Park?6th5th+1
2025-06-15Monmouth Park?1st0th+1
2025-05-18Monmouth Park?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0218/0514/0925/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20253rd10/147%75%+0.28
12/03/20255th5/174%33%-0.40
11/04/20256th8/158%29%-0.29
18/05/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
15/06/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
02/08/20256th13/266%17%-0.49
14/09/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
28/06/20264th7/282%25%-0.57
25/07/20264th6/168%50%-0.18