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5

Nuit D'eclair

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 96

Newmarket · Newsells Park Stud Sweet Solera Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Night of Thunder filly who struck on her Newbury debut and acquitted herself well pitched straight into a Group race when length fourth of 11 to Moonrise in Princess Margaret at Ascot (6f, good to firm) a fortnight ago. More to come and bold show assured if seeing out the longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f GF 1282/0741 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f GF 12825/071projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot14th4th0
2026-07-02Newbury41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0725/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
25/07/20264th12/137%70%+0.33