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4

Sanbona Warrior

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 78

Newmarket · William Hill Epic Boost Nursery · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ten Sovereigns colt who made a really promising start when second of 11 at Kempton and held off a next-time-out winner (pair clear) when going one place better at Doncaster (7f, firm) 3 weeks ago. Looks well treated off an opening mark of 78.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f Sta 13029/0644 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f6y GF 13018/074projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Doncaster41st1st0
2026-06-29Kempton42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
18/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06