Theheatison
2yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 71
Newmarket · William Hill Epic Boost Nursery · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |