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Arctic Dawn

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 100

Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner last season and has continued on the up this summer, scoring in convincing fashion at Doncaster. Not seen to best effect in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot before an excellent sixth of 16 in International there 2 weeks ago, albeit well positioned on that occasion.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 7f Sta 129 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 79 par5/094OR 794 @ Kempton 24/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 139 · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Newcastle 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 84 · 7f14y Sta 139 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 84 par27/104OR 844 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 142 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 7f1y Std 137 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 92 par3/123OR 923 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 91 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 91 · 7f6y GF 131 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 91 par6/063OR 912 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR 100 · 7f GF 133 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 100 · 7f GF 136 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 100 par25/072OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot26th6th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot224th24th0
2026-06-06Doncaster31st2nd−1
2026-05-16Newmarket33rd4th−1
2025-12-03Lingfield35th6th−1
2025-11-05Kempton48th10th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/095/116/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
24/09/20255th9/276%60%-0.16
27/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
05/11/20258th9/276%46%-0.30
03/12/20255th8/158%56%-0.02
16/05/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
06/06/20261st18/581%100%+0.19
18/06/202624th40/10%15%+0.15
25/07/20266th28/10%67%+0.67