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10

Castle Rock

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 89

Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/13

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressed with each start at 2 yrs, confirming debut promise when landing the odds in Newmarket maiden in October before defying penalty there later in month. Absence/first-time headgear is a slight concern but form of those wins has worked out well and opening mark of 89 could underestimate him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 7f GS 13020/0942 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 1334/1024 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f Gd 13731/104projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-31Newmarket41st3rd−2
2025-10-04Newmarket21st1st0
2025-09-20Newbury44th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/094/1031/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20254th4/179%75%-0.04
04/10/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
31/10/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03