7
Kodi Lion
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 87
Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Ayr | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Haydock | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ascot | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 20/09/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |