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4

Morte Point

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 92

Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 of his last 4 starts last year and back to form since fitted with headgear, making all under this rider at Chepstow before running at least as well in a much more competitive environment when sixth of 17 at York. Easy to excuse latest run at Glorious Goodwood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 82 par16/104OR 823 @ Southwell 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 89 · 7f15y Std 135 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 91 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 91 par16/043OR 912 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 21st of 28 · OR 91 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 90 · 7f Gd 135 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 90 par22/053OR 903 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 88 · 7f GS 133 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 88 par4 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 7f16y Goo 139 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 86 par3/074OR 863 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par29/073OR 93projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood314th15th−1
2026-07-10York36th7th−1
2026-07-03Chepstow41st3rd−2
2026-06-11Newbury39th10th−1
2026-05-22Goodwood312th13th−1
2026-05-09Ascot221th21th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/109/053/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
30/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
16/04/202611th8/158%41%-0.17
09/05/202621st50/10%26%+0.26
22/05/202612th11/142%15%-0.27
11/06/20269th9/153%43%-0.10
03/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
10/07/20266th11/142%69%+0.27
29/07/202614th22/10%32%+0.32