IvyArcIvyArc
9

Pinatubo's Legacy

4yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 85

Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made winning debut in novice at Newcastle in November and stepped up on that when ¾-length third under a penalty at Lingfield 2 months later. However, made no impact switched to turf for handicap debut over C&D after 6 months off (had breathing operation during absence).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13226/1152 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f1y Std 14817/0123 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 86 · 7f GF 138 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 86 par11/073OR 86projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Newmarket310th11th−1
2026-01-17Lingfield23rd3rd0
2025-11-26Newcastle51st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1117/0111/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
17/01/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
11/07/202610th25/10%10%+0.10