IvyArcIvyArc
8

Sword

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 85

Newmarket · William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Can be temperamental but he stepped up on stable debut/reappearance when ¾-length third of 20 at York under this rider in June. Decent efforts in defeat both starts since (raced freely in front when fifth in International at Ascot 2 weeks ago) and not taken lightly re-united with this claimer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 87 · 7f14y Std 120 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 87 par21/082OR 872 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 124 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 85 · 1m5y Std 140 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 85 par28/094OR 854 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 137 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f212y Goo 137 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 87 par17/103OR 873 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f135y Goo 126 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 140 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 85 par12/064OR 853 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f GF 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 85 · 7f GF 121 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par25/072OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot25th5th0
2026-07-11Newmarket36th7th−1
2026-06-12York43rd5th−2
2026-05-09Lingfield38th9th−1
2025-10-17Haydock311th12th−1
2025-10-04Newcastle42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/084/1012/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202514th11/142%0%-0.42
06/09/202516th22/10%21%+0.21
28/09/20258th9/153%42%-0.11
04/10/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
17/10/202511th9/153%0%-0.53
09/05/20268th40/10%0%0.00
12/06/20263rd80/10%89%+0.89
11/07/20266th25/10%50%+0.50
25/07/20265th33/10%73%+0.73