6
Luzon Heights
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 79
Newmarket · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |