3
Runswick
3yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 87
Newmarket · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |