4
Vincenzo Peruggia
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 87
Newmarket · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 9.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 25th | 24th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Musselburgh | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-07-05 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength15%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 18/06/2026 | 25th | 100/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/07/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |