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Brave Nation

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 73

Newmarket · Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Rather lost his way for Michael Bell but offered some encouragement for his new yard after 3 months off when third at Sandown 16 days ago and potentially well treated if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength82%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 07/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f3y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 85 par7/063OR 853 @ Doncaster 04/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 5f3y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 85 par4 @ Chester 26/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 84 · 5f15y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 84 par26/074OR 844 @ Windsor 14/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 83 · 5f21y GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Yarmouth 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 5f42y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 81 par24/083OR 812 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 81 · 4f214y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 79 par8/104OR 794 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f42y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 5f10y GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 75 par23/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Sandown43rd2nd+1
2026-04-11Yarmouth44th3rd+1
2025-10-08Kempton47th6th+1
2025-08-28Southwell212th8th+3
2025-08-24Yarmouth33rd1st+2
2025-08-14Windsor413th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0614/088/1023/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength10%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20254th6/168%77%+0.08
04/07/20254th6/492%40%-0.52
26/07/20253rd15/261%71%+0.11
14/08/202513th13/266%0%-0.66
24/08/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
28/08/202512th17/255%15%-0.40
08/10/20257th5/174%40%-0.34
11/04/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
23/07/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51