5
Lion's House
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 66
Newmarket · Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 12/04/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 20/06/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |