1
Merrimack
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 74
Newmarket · Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |