4
Thornaby Pearl
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 67
Newmarket · Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 9/5 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |