Baltic
6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 67
Newmarket · William Hill Price Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Yarmouth | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2024 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 31/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 14/06/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 24/07/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 10% | -0.32 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |