5
Dereham
10yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 53
Newmarket · William Hill Price Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Pontefract | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-26 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-26 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2024 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 26/10/2024 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 21/11/2024 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |