6
Fram Castle
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 53
Newmarket · William Hill Price Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Kempton | 6 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Brighton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 30/06/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 03/11/2025 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 8% | -0.52 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |